The Indian rupee has been hitting new lows, week after week. From holding on to 74 against the US dollar in January to dropping to 83 last week — a double-digit fall in percentage terms in just 10 months — the rupee’s depreciation has not augured well for the economy. Economists caution that the currency could plunge further in the coming months before settling down. Some forecasters argue that the rupee could rebound and gain strength in the next fiscal year.
The fall of the rupee has been precipitated by global factors and an unusual strengthening of the dollar against almost all major currencies of the world. While the rupee has performed way better against the greenback than biggies such as the pound and the euro, the runaway dollar can’t be taken lightly since it has a massive fallout on India’s import bills and inflation.
The rupee will fall further against the US dollar over the rest of the year, a Reuters poll last week showed, setting up the currency for its steepest annual decline in at least nine years due to a widening domestic trade balance and surging US interest rates.
It is likely to fall further to 84.50 by December, according to the mean and median forecasts of a poll of 14 bankers and foreign exchange advisors. The estimates in the poll ranged between 83.25 and 86, showing a broad consensus that the Rupee would not recover this year.
